Iraq and UAE could benefit if Iran misses the 2026 World Cup

Iran may not take part in the 2026 World Cup, in which case another team from the Asian Football Confederation would likely take its place, according to ESPN.
Iraq is seen as the most likely replacement. On 31 March, Iraq will play the intercontinental play-off final against the winner of Bolivia–Suriname. If Iraq lose that match, they could still receive the World Cup berth in place of Iran.
If Iraq win and qualify directly through the play-off, the next candidate would be the United Arab Emirates. The UAE lost to Iraq in the final of Asian qualification and are next in line among AFC teams.
Who do you think is closer to the 2026 World Cup — Iraq or the UAE?